Building Your Theory of Change
A ToC is your causal hypothesis. If you won’t write it down, you probably can’t run it.
Create a clear, testable ToC with explicit assumptions and indicators.
Core Teachings
Key concepts with source texts
IF we do X AND assumptions A/B/C hold, THEN outputs happen, WHICH lead to outcomes, CONTRIBUTING to impact.
From the Source Texts
"A theory of change... makes explicit the underlying assumptions about how change happens and the role the organisation plays in contributing to that change."
Commentary
The value is in assumptions you can test—not in pretty diagrams.
Study Materials
Primary sources with guided reading
NCVO: Theory of Change guide
A practical standard reference for ToC development and common pitfalls.
Write your thoughts before revealing answers
Your Thoughts
Writing your thoughts first will deepen your understanding
Bridge notes help connect the resources and show how they relate to the learning outcome.
AI-generated notes synthesize the lesson outcome and resource summaries. Human-reviewed before publishing.
Outputs vs outcomes—what’s the right distinction?