Experiment Design: Evidence Over Pilots
A pilot that can’t change your decision is performance art.
Design experiments that test ToC assumptions and generate decision-grade evidence.
Core Teachings
Key concepts with source texts
For each critical assumption: - Hypothesis (what must be true) - Metric (how you’ll know) - Test (smallest credible experiment) - Threshold (pass/fail or next step)
Pick 3 assumptions and design 3 experiments with thresholds.
Study Materials
Primary sources with guided reading
Additional Resources
Use the iteration mindset, but adapt for ethics and real-world constraints.
Write your thoughts before revealing answers
Your Thoughts
Writing your thoughts first will deepen your understanding
Bridge notes help connect the resources and show how they relate to the learning outcome.
AI-generated notes synthesize the lesson outcome and resource summaries. Human-reviewed before publishing.
What makes an experiment ‘decision-grade’?